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Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and gas sector. Her…
Canada is fast-tracking a proposed 1 million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, giving Alberta another route to Asian buyers and another way around its overwhelming dependence on the U.S. market.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that Ottawa will list the project as one of national interest, sending it through a single federal review process that Ottawa aims to complete by September 1, 2027, potentially allowing construction to begin shortly afterward.
The pipeline would run from Alberta to southern British Columbia, largely following the existing Trans Mountain corridor. Trans Mountain Corp. and Pembina Pipeline would lead the project, with the federal and Alberta governments expected to hold the majority stake. Indigenous communities would be offered at least 10% ownership.
Alberta estimates construction could cost between C$35.2 billion and C$43.7 billion. Ottawa says the project could generate more than C$20 billion in annual GDP, create as many as 140,000 jobs at peak construction and produce C$100 billion in government revenue by 2060.
Canada still sends more than 90% of its crude exports to the United States. Its main escape route is the 890,000-bpd Trans Mountain pipeline, which reaches the Pacific and is already running at capacity.
That Pacific access has become more valuable since the Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern flows and sent Asian refiners hunting for barrels that do not have to clear the Strait of Hormuz. China has already become the largest buyer of Trans Mountain’s seaborne exports, taking roughly 60% of shipments, according to the Canadian government.
Ottawa and Alberta are also pursuing another 300,000 to 400,000 bpd of capacity on the existing Trans Mountain system.
The new pipeline still needs a final route, regulatory approvals, and consultation with Indigenous communities and British Columbia.
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