OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast Again as the Oil Market Starts Looking Past Hormuz
Oil prices jumped more than 8% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran, forcing traders to once again price in the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude climbed above $82 per barrel during afternoon trading, gaining more than 8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged past $77 per barrel.
Monday’s surge wiped out most of the losses that followed last month’s ceasefire, pushing Brent back above $82 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $77 as traders responded to the renewed fighting.
The latest price surge follows another weekend of attacks involving commercial shipping near the Hormuz, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption along with a large share of LNG.
Trump also said vessels receiving U.S. protection while transiting Hormuz would reimburse Washington through a 20% charge on cargoes, Reuters reported.
The proposal was immediately criticised by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the grounds that international law does not provide for mandatory transit fees through straits used for international navigation. Energy companies have also rejected similar proposals previously advanced by Tehran, arguing that freedom of navigation remains a cornerstone of global maritime trade.
Physical oil supplies have not experienced widespread disruptions, yet crude markets rarely wait for export terminals to shut down before repricing risk. Tanker owners are already weighing higher war-risk insurance premiums, longer voyage planning and additional security measures before committing vessels to Gulf cargoes.
Refined fuel markets have also tightened. Diesel, jet fuel and gasoline prices have all strengthened as traders anticipate higher transportation costs and possible delays to product shipments originating in the Middle East. Any prolonged slowdown in tanker traffic would tighten prompt fuel availability well before global crude inventories begin to decline.
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